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17th September 2023, 22:13

GBC Election Poll: Narrow lead for GSD but huge undecided vote holds balance of power

Published by GBC News

A GBC election poll suggests the GSD has a slight lead over the GSLP/Liberals but Fabian Picardo emerges as a clear favourite for Chief Minister.

The poll indicates the election could be neck and neck with the GSD on just under 24% and the GSLP/Liberals two points behind at almost 22%.

However, 31% voted 'Don't Know', suggesting that it's all to play for. Who wins the election could be decided by this significant proportion of people who currently don’t know how they will vote, or are not saying at this stage (as well as - to a lesser extent - the more than 12% who will split their vote).

The poll by GBC, in association with Mediatel, suggests 8% would blank vote.

Together Gibraltar fails to gather any significant support, trailing in the poll at just under 3%.

Almost 60% would consider voting for an independent candidate.

Who will make best Chief Minister?

We asked those polled who they thought would make the best Chief Minister for the next four years. This was an optional question and not a multiple choice: respondents had to volunteer an answer. Only half of those surveyed did. The majority of replies favour Fabian Picardo: the number of people in this poll who chose the alliance leader was more than double the number who went for the GSD leader Keith Azopardi.

55% said Mr Picardo would make the best Chief Minister.

Mr Azopardi came in at 23%.

More than 1,100 People Surveyed Face to Face

More than 1,100 people took part - all were approached face to face at random and all replies were taken privately and confidentially.

The poll was conducted last week across five voting districts, before any candidates were announced:- and in Gibraltar personalities are important. Political parties often say it's only the poll on election day that counts but today's results are bound to energise both parties. Judging by the findings, the campaign and line-up quality will be crucial.

67% of people surveyed say they will follow news on the candidates 'Very' or 'Fairly' closely (see chart below).

Almost 8 out of every 10 told us they are 'absolutely' or 'fairly' certain they will vote.

Full analysis across the day:

GBC will bring you more details and other answers as well as analysis throughout Monday. Tune into:

Gibraltar Today with Jonathan Scott on Radio Gibraltar from 1pm;

Election Watch with James Neish on Radio Gibraltar from 7pm, and;

GBC News on TV from 8.30pm.

Plus all the developing stories on line-ups etc ... every hour in our news summaries on radio and across our social media accounts.