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23rd April 2015, 20:30

GBC poll predicts landslide election victory for the GSLP/Liberals

Voters for the GSLP/Liberals at the forthcoming general election will outnumber those for the GSD by nearly three-to-one, according to the results of a GBC public opinion poll. Both political groupings have improved compared with our previous poll last December, but whereas the Alliance has increased in popularity by 17 points, the GSD has only gone up by four. The poll suggests that nearly half the number of those who were undecided four months ago have now made up their minds how they will vote. 

When GBC published its poll coinciding with the third anniversary of the GSLP/Liberals Government last year, many were surprised by the high proportion, 53%, of undecided voters. With the election fast approaching, it seems people are starting to come down on one side or the other, and it is not good news for the GSD.

The Alliance has surged ahead, making it past the 50% threshold so coveted by local politicians, with 50.8%. The Social Democrats trail a massive 33 points behind on 17.6%. If this were the actual outcome of the election it would be the GSD's worst-ever showing, their present low-point being the 20% the party obtained when going into Opposition in 1992. The still undecideds and blanks accounted for 31.6% of the votes. With these taken out of the calculation, as they are in an actual election, the GSLP/Liberals' lead is even greater: 74% compared with 26% for the GSD.

As in December, the poll was conducted for GBC by Colorworks, who collected 250 surveys from a representative sample of the electorate over three days throughout Gibraltar.