17th November 2015, 20:27
The GSLP/Liberals will decisively win next week's general election by an average of two votes to one, and all ten of their candidates will finish above the GSD, the only other party contesting the election. That's the main finding of GBC's second opinion poll of the campaign.
On this occasion, Colorworks asked participants to fill in a replica ballot paper with the names of all the candidates in alphabetical order, as they will be on the actual ballot paper on polling day. 650 were collected, equivalent to three per cent of the electorate. Most undecided voters invited to take part in the survey declined.
Discounting the one per cent who abstained, the Alliance candidates secured 67 per cent support compared with 33 per cent for the GSD, a lead of 34 points. This exactly matches the findings of a Gibraltar Chronicle poll last week after abstentions and "Don't Knows" were removed from the calculation. GBC's previous poll, on the 4th of November, gave the GSLP/Liberals an even bigger lead of 42 points although, as with the Chronicle's, there was a high proportion of undecideds.
In our latest poll, Alliance leader Fabian Picardo tops the list and would be re-elected as Chief Minister. Health and Environment minister John Cortes is second and former Chief Minister Joe Bossano third. Liberal Party leader Joseph Garcia is fifth, behind Education minister Gilbert Licudi. Although not in identical order, these were also the top five five for the GSLP/Liberals in the 2011 election.
Party leader Daniel Feetham comes first for the GSD and Chairman Trevor Hammond is second. With 20 candidates fighting for only 17 parliamentary seats, the battle within the Social Democrats would appear to be to avoid finishing in the bottom three places. The candidates in that unfortunate position in our poll are Robert Vasquez, Kim Karnani and Chris White, but with just five votes separating six candidates there's all to play for if they want to make it onto the Opposition bench.