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9th October 2023, 19:00

Latest poll: GSLP-Liberals to win on votes but fail to make it to government

Published by GBC News

A new GBC/Chronicle poll suggests the GSLP-Liberals would secure the most votes at the general election but would fail to form government.

It would be the GSD who makes it to Number Six getting nine candidates into Parliament.

Gibraltar's 'First Past the Post' system allows for 17 MPs with a majority of at least nine needed to govern.

The results indicate Fabian Picardo would top the poll as the most popular candidate. But his colleagues, Sir Joe Bossano and Vijay Daryanani would not make it to Parliament, leaving the alliance again one short of a majority.

The outcome varies slightly from last week’s GBC/Chronicle poll but the net effect is the same with the GSD forming Government and the same candidates making it into Parliament and the same ones left out.

What changes this time round is that the GSLP- Liberals would command 49.9% of the vote, giving it a 1.6% lead over the GSD's 48.3%.

Independent candidate Robert Vasquez is down on 1.8 %.

9% of those polled returned a blank vote, and as would be the case in a general election, these have not been included in the overall total.

The order of candidates also changes - GSD Leader Keith Azopardi comes second.

He's followed by three GSLP candidates, Gemma Arias Vasquez, Joseph Garcia and Christian Santos.

GSLP- Liberal candidates Sir Joe Bossano and Vijay Daryanani would lose their seats with the GSD's Youssef El Hana and Independent Robert Vasquez not making it among the top 17.

As was the case with the last poll, candidates from opposing sides are interspersed in the top 17 (as the chart below shows).

This face to face poll was conducted by Mediatel for GBC and the Gibraltar Chronicle.

600 people were surveyed and were asked to fill in their answers anonymously on an iPad.

GBC CEO James Neish goes through the new poll results with Iain Triay-Clarence and what they could mean for those contesting the election.