< Back

5th October 2023, 12:00

Latest poll: GSD to win election with knife-edge margin of 0.5% and would govern with nine MPs not 10

Published by GBC News

A new poll suggests the GSD will win the election with the narrowest of margins but would govern with nine MPs and not 10.

A joint GBC/Chronicle poll again points to the election being on a knife edge, with the GSD on 49.2% and the GSLP/Liberals just half a percentage point behind on 48.7%.

The GSD’s Keith Azopardi and Damon Bossino leapfrog alliance leader Fabian Picardo as the most voted candidates.

It points to a nail biting final seven days of electioneering with everything to play for.

And, if the results were replicated on the night, Sir Joe Bossano would lose his seat after 51 years in the house.

Poll predicts nine GSD MPs and eight GSLP/Liberals would be elected 

The poll points to one of the most tightly contested general elections in more than a decade.

It suggests the GSD could get nine of their candidates into Parliament, compared with eight for the GSLP-Liberals. The top 17 candidates in Gibraltar’s ‘first past the post’ electoral system will be elected into Parliament. At the last two elections, the GSLP-Liberals’ 10 candidates topped the polls, with seven opposition MPs. It seems the shape of Parliament is set to change.

If the poll is replicated on Thursday 12th October, GSD leader Keith Azopardi would become Chief Minister, as the leader of the party with the majority of MPs.

Sir Joe Bossano, Vijay Daryanani and Youssef El Hana to miss out

The GSD candidate who would not to make it into Parliament is Youssef El Hana, who has had to apologise a number of times in recent weeks for past social media posts on Israel and Palestine that have been strongly criticised as anti-semitic by members of the Jewish Community Managing Board.

Sir Joe Bossano and Vijay Daryanani would be the ones to miss out from the GSLP/Liberals. Sir Joe has been chosen as an MP in every general election since June 1972.

600 people were polled face to face over the past week, in different parts of Gibraltar, at different times, with an almost 50-50 ratio of men and women of different ages. They could answer anonymously.

Interestingly, 18% of votes were not used by the 600 who took the poll.

Keith Azopardi set to top the poll

The alliance leader Fabian Picardo had topped a poll carried out by GBC last month, but in this one Mr Azopardi gets the most votes, his GSD colleague Damon Bossino is in second, and Mr Picardo is third, closely followed by Joseph Garcia and Gemma Arias Vasquez.

Independent Robert Vasquez is the candidate set to score the fewest votes, a respectable 2.17%.